A Well Run Dry: Why the GOP is Doomed in 2012.

As the days go by and we inch closer and closer to 2012, I can’t help but begin to feel the fear growing within me.

The situation is growing deeper and more dire. I don’t think people realize the quagmire the Republican Party faces in 2012. This isn’t your normal political climate. There’s a two front war, a health care revolution, a debate about the end of a recession, a record federal debt, and a world growing less and less influenced by the United State.

All of that alone is enough to be a daunting task to unseat a president. In 2004, the argument was made that because we were in a war, Bush would not be deposed by Kerry because he had war experience. Well, is it too far out of spectrum to suggest that, because Obama has been weathering this storm, he would not be unseated for the same ‘experience’ standard.

As laughable as putting experience and Obama together might be, for once, it might not be too off point.

But its more than that. Obama is not just president. He’s not just a man. He’s a movement. That’s where this political climate begin to get scary. Men are defeatable. Presidents are fallible. But a full fledged movement? Well, thats a whole different beast. Obama represents all the “change” democrats wanted to see. He overcame the odds, beat the system by wearing Hillary out before crushing McCain. He has changed the old guard in Washington- younger people are getting their chance to big things in the White House. He’s doing the one thing no other POTUS has ever done before- humanizing the White House. In previous presidencies, the White House was seemingly built on a pedestal. You didn’t hear about the underlings. The president was the focus and everybody else just happened to be the fuzzy background in his grand picture. But now, its different. Obama has done a masterful job of making his White House appeal to the every day person. His staffers have posed for Maxim, his speechwriter Jon Favreau made both the 100 Most Influential and 100 Best Looking lists in the same year. The White House has become approachable. Its no longer the shining house on the Hill, but just another place of business that happens to be a million times cooler and more important than any place you’ve ever works.

Thats what scares me. As many missteps as he has made, the movement keeps picking up steam. Regular people are willing to forgive quickly because...”he’s just a regular guy”. The president has always had this air of regality in the past. They’ve all had normal tendencies, but at the end of the day, they always stood above the chaff because they had to. Not him. He’s addicted to his Blackberry, like us. He had a problem with smoking, like so many of us. He enjoys filling out March Madness brackets, like us.

Forget health care blunders. Forget the rising defecit. Forget Government Motors. He’s one of us.

That is what gives me nightmares at night. 2012 is becoming more and more of a pipedream for the GOP and conservatives as a whole. We will probably split the power and regain a ton of seats in Congress. Boehner says there should be as many as 100 seats in play and I fully believe that’s truth. We will probably regain majority within Congress or at least pick up enough seats to ruin the liberal agenda.

But thats recoverable. In the scope of national politics, Congress is a bunch of nameless, faceless ranks that take the brunt of the blame for whatever bad happens. With the exception of a few people who rise above the facelessness- Pelosi, Reid, McCain, and now Scott Brown, you couldn’t name half the people there. They are all just people, just ordinary people, defeatable as any other politician. 2012 will be a Congressional dogfight, one that would make Michael Vick salivate, for sure.

But the prizefight may be over before it even begins.

The GOP currently has no superstars. They have not groomed anyone to enter the fight and stand a reasonable chance. Its going to be like Pacquiao v Clottey from a few weeks ago, where Clottey got talked up, then stood around and did nothing and was made to look a fool for entering the ring.

To defeat a movement, you need a countermovement. What does the GOP currently have? The Tea Party. Now, don’t get me wrong, the Tea Party is, without a doubt, a countermovement.

But of a different breed.

The Tea Party gives everyday people a chance to stand up, to exercise their rights to free speech against politicians. But who has risen from the Tea Party ranks to challenge Obama in a manner that could translate into a presidential race?

Sarah Palin? No way. Her resigning from gubernatorial duties in Alaska was the worst move she could ever make. So not only is she the crazy veep candidate that kept McCain’s boat barely afloat, but she’s a quitter. Probably to collect those fat paychecks from books, pundit appearances, etc. If Sarah Palin runs, it will divide America worse than Obama did. Which is what we can’t afford right now.

Glenn Beck? He’s a TV pundit. Presidencies built upon talking heads are the stuff of poorly written movies.

Newt Gingrich. His time was ten years ago.

There are names in the race already or names from 2008, but none of them evoke any real emotions.

Romney- Mormonism is a strong thing to overcome. Governing a liberal state is another. He is far too establishment to get over.

Bobby Jindal- Years away. The young governor from Louisiana could be a contender, but there has been NOTHING done to pump him up. No opportunities to turn him into a brand name.

McCain- He didn’t even really want to run in 2008. He’s done. He is a great man. One of the best America has. Just not suited for the presidency. Its not that he would do a bad job.....its just that he wouldn’t do a great job either.

Huckabee- Made the transition to television. Paycheck is too good on TV. I don’t think he has a reasonable shot.

Giuliani- Disinterested. He was the strong favorite in 2008 and I think he had the best chance to unseat Obama. He was on the verge of ‘movement’ status with the America’s Mayor moniker, but nobody harnessed it properly. His brain trust screwed him with their ‘place now, work later’ focus on dismissing the early primaries/caucases and using Florida as their launch pad. Iowa and New Hampshire are NEVER overlookable. In 2000, McCain stood a chance at beating Bush because of New Hampshire. 1992, Clinton did the same thing in NH. Iowa is a coinflip- it built the fire that legitimized Obama and it created the flareout that became Huckabee’s campaign.

Tim Pawlenty- He’s been my personal pick since McCain won the nomination in 2008. It was obvious McCain wasn’t going to win, but his vetting of T-Paw made a lot of sense as a VP candidate. He’s got the best credentials. He’s probably the best choice. But he’s just a man. A very bland man at that. The self styled “Wal-Mart Conservative” hasn’t branded himself, hasn’t stepped out into the spotlight to create any aura around him. Its obvious he wants the presidency, but finishing 4th in CPAC voting because nobody knows you is a horrible way to come out of the gate.

The GOP needs a movement. They need to rally behind a non-polarizing figure that understands what the people want. That can speak well, that isn’t your normal dehumanized politician.

You know who stands that chance?

Scott Brown.

It makes sense. He’s a firebrand. His grassroots campaign appealed to the entire US. He pulled the world into Massachusetts for that race. He created a mini-movement behind him. He became larger than life. Scott Brown became more than just a man, Scott Brown became a rallying cry for conservatives across the US who were already tired of the direction Obama had been taken us.

Our hopes in 2012 may rest upon a former Cosmo model who captured America’s hearts and minds with one of the most surprising and oddly played campaigns in Congressional history.

Are you worried yet?